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Gulf economies and oil prices

I checked the money market indicators in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the acute form of the impact of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decision (OPEC) to leave the daily production ceiling unchanged at 30 million barrels per day, despite the increased supply that caused the decline in oil prices more than 35 percent. Oman market has seen in November 30 (November) fell sharply by 6.2 percent, the Saudi market, followed by 4.8 percent, sensuality Dubai by 4.7 percent, the Qatari market is 4.3 percent, Valkwytah 3.3 percent, sensuality Abu Dhabi by 2.6 percent, then the Bahrain market rose 0.6 percent.
Fell «trading» Saudi index, including 13.2 percent in the last month in the light of falling crude oil price in the past two months. The decline in the share price of the largest public company in the UK, which is «the Saudi Basic Industries Corporation» (SABIC), up 20.4 percent over the past month. Shares of the company «entity» Saudi Petrochemical by 18.6 percent. This saw the Saudi market, the largest in the region, some of the recovery after the downturn, while other markets showed mixed activity.
She said global economic conditions to the negative situation of the regional markets, according to a report released yesterday «Global Investment House» (Global) in Kuwait, Despite the recovery of the US economy indicators, but the deterioration of economic conditions in other major areas negatively affected in the major stock markets, rose retail prices in Europe at a slower pace in November, adding to fears of deflation in the continent. Japan's economy slipped into recession also Vtqlst growth rate in the third quarter of this year. She said the negative economic data for developing countries to negative sentiment year, Vtbato growth in the Chinese economy in the light of the registrar in the real estate market slump. As a result, China has cut interest rates in the form of unexpected to stimulate growth in the country. In addition, the United States is not immune to the global economic conditions, is expected to be partially affected by the global crisis.
The Brent oil price of 35 per cent since the beginning of 2014, as of yesterday, the lowest level in four years amid speculation that «OPEC» organization would refrain from making any change to the global surplus. The recent sharp decline surprise to most decision-makers and market experts, The reasons for the decline were not based on supply and demand and that with a surplus in supply due to strong supplies to the United States from oil shale, in addition to the resumption of supplies from Libya and Iraq after the improvement of the geopolitical circumstances in which, to coincide with the economic recession both Europe and China. US Energy Information Administration predicted that the price of oil rolling in 2015 range between $ 80 and $ 90 a barrel, an average of $ 83 a barrel, note that the amendment is not unlikely that range to between $ 70 and $ 80 a barrel.
But the production of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is equal to about 20 percent of the world's oil, also controls 35 percent of the world's oil exports. Therefore, the determination of income countries, expenditure and financial planning is largely dependent on oil prices and global exports. In the past few years, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have benefited from high oil prices doubled its revenue from $ 317 billion in 2008 to 729 billion in 2013.
It is expected the emergence of a lot of pressure due to the funding requirements of the sectors, which could strain the budgets in the region.
The price of crude «Brent» less than the level required to balance the budgets of Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In Kuwait and Qatar, The price is above the break-even point, note that any decline in the price of another would negatively affect significantly in the form of the budgets of the GCC countries, especially countries with high levels equivalent.
But in the long-term outlook for the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) remain positive and will not be affected to a large extent a decline in oil prices. According to the International Energy Agency, it is expected that oil demand will rise in 2040 to 104 million barrels per day, compared to the current level at 90 million barrels per day, noting that meet this demand, require the availability of all types of oil-traditional such as oil from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Iran, Iraq, and unconventional oil such as oil shale from the United States and other sources, and the deep sea oil in Brazil, oil sandstone in Canada, and oil from the Arctic. With reference to the non-conventional oil needs a price of $ 90 a barrel in order to remain viable, since the current price does not support the development of these resources, and there are signs of a slowdown in investment in non-traditional production, it is expected to stabilize the price of oil at a comfortable level in the long term. GDP growth in the GCC will remain good in the coming years with the support of the expansion of non-oil sectors.

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